Warmer weather, rising non-OPEC output threaten oil market balance

Postado Novembro 14, 2017

"The United States will be the undisputed leader of global oil and gas markets for decades to come", IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said Tuesday in an interview with Bloomberg television.

The dramatic shifts envisioned by the IEA in its World Energy Outlook would transform the USA from an energy importer into a major player in global markets capable of producing 30 million barrels of oil and gas a day by 2025.

"The oil market should be able to find a longer-term equilibrium, with the oil price in a range of $50-70 a barrel", the agency said.

The largest contribution to demand growth - nearly 30 per cent - would come from India, whose share of global energy would rise to 11 per cent by 2040, it said. "Meeting this demand would require an overall investment of around $10.5 trillion across upstream, midstream and downstream operations" Opec Secretary-General, Mohammad Barkindo, said noting that the 2017 outlook was more positive than past year, partly thanks to oil exporting nations' efforts to stabilise the market. "There's big growth coming from shale oil, and as such there'll be a big difference between the US and other producers".

Oil prices have risen in recent months, after both Opec and non-Opec countries struck a landmark deal at the end of a year ago to cut back production to combat a global oil glut.

"The U.S. [shale] oil industry avoided the blow by morphing into a leaner, more agile version of its former self; it has since proved remarkably resilient to lower prices", the IEA said.

The World Energy Outlook says that China, in an effort to reduce severe air pollution in major cities, will lead in the development and deployment of increasingly efficient solar photovoltaic panels.

Oil inventories in the world's richest nations fell by 40 million barrels in September, breaking below 3.0 billion barrels for the first time in two years, driven in part by Hurricane Harvey, which shuttered much US refining capacity in August.

A study by Bank of America Merrill Lynch forecasts that pure electric vehicles would achieve a global penetration of 12 per cent in 2025, 34 per cent by 2030 and 90 per cent by 2050.

However, even rapid growth in the electric vehicle fleet would be unlikely to have a substantial impact on oil consumption for passenger transport until the mid-2020s, it said.

Chris Watling, CEO and chief market strategist at Longview Economics, was quoted as saying that the adoption of EVs could lead to global peak oil demand as soon as 2023, which will result in oil prices crashing to $10.