You have seen how they barely survived in Gujarat and got defeated in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan bypolls. The swing away in Modi's own territory, Gujarat, was the first indicator - and these by-elections seem to confirm the Gujarat trend. It appears that the overconfidence may have cost the party the two Lok Sabha seats. A consolidation of OBC, Dalit and Muslim votes powered Samajwadi Party candidates to victory in Gorakhpur, a seat represented by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath for five successive terms, and Phulpur, which elected his deputy Keshav Prasad Maurya in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. RJD's Sarfaraz Alam wins Araria Lok Sabha seat by 57,358 votes.
SP's Praveen Kumar Nishad wrested the Gorakhpur seat by defeating BJP's Upendra Dutt Shukla by over 21,000 votes.
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee said the by-polls marked the "beginning of the end" for the BJP. "Both the SP and the BSP had age-old differences between them, but they were kept aside for the sake of democracy and to defeat the BJP and its anti-people policies", he told PTI.
In Phulpur Lok Sabha bypoll seat in the state, Samajwadi Party registered a massive victory over the ruling BJP.
In Phulpur Lok Sabha seat, Samajwadi Party's Nagendra Pratap Singh Patel is leading by 12,231 votes with 99,557 votes as against BJP's Kaushlendra Singh Patel who is second with 87,326 votes after eight round of counting. If, as is highly likely, the Congress comes on board, UP could well spell doom for the BJP in 2019. "They will give their answer in the election booth in the 2019 LS polls", he said.
In a major setback to the BJP, the saffron party lost Gorakhpur and Phulpur Lok Sabha seats for which elections were held on March 11.
Incidentally, the BJP lost the Gorakhpur seat after around three decades.
In the two assembly by-polls in Bihar, the RJD won the Jehanabad Assembly seat while the BJP bagged the Bhabhua Assembly seat. The NDA allies had polled 43.3 per cent votes. The TDP has already withdrawn its ministers from the government while others like Ramvilas Paswan, the eternal alliance hopper, may follow suit. "Though there is still a long time (ahead of the polls), we will redraw our strategy keeping this factor in mind". "Bypolls have no impact on the stability of a government, whether at the Centre or in a state", he said.
With the original Grand Alliance unraveled after the JD-U deserted it in favor of the BJP, there was a lot at stake for everyone in the by-elections: the RJD, JD-U, BJP and Congress.